Heatwave alert for northwest; cyclone brewing in Bay of Bengal; ‘extremely heavy falls’ in Kerala on May 22, 23

Chandigarh, May 21
There seems to be no let-up in the heatwave conditions prevailing over northwest India. According to the IMD, the stifling heat in the region is expected to persist for the coming five days as well. Meanwhile, a cyclone seems to be brewing in the Bay of Bengal while “extremely heavy falls” have been predicted for Kerala on May 22 and 23 by the weather office.
Cyclone brewing?
IMD officials say a “low pressure area” is likely to form over Southwest Bay of Bengal by May 22. “It is likely to move northeastwards and concentrate into a ‘depression’ over central parts of Bay of Bengal by morning of May 24. It would continue to move northeastwards and intensify further thereafter,” they add.
While intensifying a tropical cyclone passes through various stages.
Starting off as a ‘well-marked low pressure area’, it may intensify if the situation is conducive enough to turn into a ‘depression’ and then into a ‘cyclone /deep depression’, ‘severe cyclone’, ‘very severe cyclone’ and ‘extremely severe cyclone’.
Weatherman says there are “good chances” that this particular LPA may intensify and turn into the “first cyclone of the 2024 pre-monsoon season.”
“The IMD will start issuing alerts as soon as it intensifies into a cyclone. Ocean and atmospheric conditions are favourable with sea surface temperatures warmer,” they add.
The SSTs in parts of the Bay have been warmer than usual for quite some time.
“Higher SSTs provide energy and moisture content, which are essential factors for the intensification. Many factors contribute to their formation, intensity and route, including greenhouse warming simulations and regional variability. Cyclones in different ocean basins are also affected by natural variations in regional atmospheric patterns.
Though global warming is not the only factor at play, stronger cyclones over the years have made accusations of the human fingerprint stronger,” experts say.
Rains in Kerala
The IMD has already forecast that the southwest monsoon is on track and will arrive over the Indian mainland in Kerala around May 31.
As per officials, rain at many places and heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places can be expected over North Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal around May 24 and 25.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rain is also “very likely” over south Peninsular India till May 24 with possibility of extremely heavy falls over Kerala on May 22 and 23.
Heatwave
Meanwhile, heat wave to severe heat wave conditions are “most likely” to continue over plains of Northwest India and north Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat in the next five days.
IMD’s heatwave specialist Dr Naresh Kumar says the current high temperatures are due to the absence of strong western disturbances in May and El Niño-related global/climate factors.
“Between March and April, frequent WDs kept the temperatures in the range of normal to at times below normal as well.
However, since the beginning of May, WDs have been weak and limited to the upper reaches. Absence of strong WDs, lack of clouds and rains, direct sun rays and heat-loaded westerly winds from Pakistan have all created the situation. It is quite normal in May,” Kumar added.
The scary part is that the effects of human-caused climate change will be intensified by El Niño because, as per scientists, increased global temperatures are associated with increasing extreme weather events.