Mumbai,mar 13
MCX crude oil futures could move toward Rs 11,500-Rs 12,000 levels in the coming weeks if global crude prices remain elevated amid rising geopolitical tensions in West Asia, Ajay Suresh Kedia, Director of Kedia Advisory, told ANI on Friday.”We are seeing strong upward pressure on MCX crude oil prices due to the ongoing geopolitical risk premium and currency movement. If Brent crude sustains near $100 per barrel and the rupee weakens toward 94 per dollar, MCX crude oil contracts could approach the 11,500- 12,000 zone,” Kedia told ANI in an online interview, highlighting the transmission from international benchmarks to domestic commodity markets. Crude oil futures on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) closely track global crude benchmarks, particularly Brent and NYMEX WTI, which have surged amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz — a strategic shipping route responsible for nearly 20% of global oil and LNG trade.Escalating tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran have significantly disrupted tanker movement through the region, pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel this week, marking its highest levels in nearly four years. A weaker rupee, which recently touched record lows amid equity market outflows and heightened geopolitical uncertainty, increases the rupee cost of crude imports and supports higher MCX crude prices. Kedia noted that while alternative supplies from Russia, the United States, and Norway are helping mitigate immediate supply disruptions, the global crude pricing mechanism ensures that Indian futures markets respond rapidly to international price movements.”The spillover impact is already visible across domestic energy derivatives. If global crude benchmarks remain elevated and freight risk premiums persist, MCX crude oil prices could move closer to the ?12,000 level on a conservative basis in the near term,” he added.Recent price movements are consistent with broader global energy volatility.
