Geneva,OCT 23
The global economy, food security, and energy supplies are at increasing risk due to vulnerabilities at key maritime routes, according to the Review of Maritime Transport 2024 from UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD).The report reveals that critical chokepoints such as the Panama Canal, Red Sea, Suez Canal, and the Black Sea, are under severe strain. “A combination of geopolitical tensions, climate impacts, and conflicts have shaken global trade, threatening the functioning of maritime supply chains,” the report, said.
“Maritime trade, which grew by 2.4% in 2023 to reach 12,292 million tons, had begun to recover after a contraction in 2022. However, the future remains uncertain. The report projects a modest 2% growth for 2024, driven by demand for bulk commodities like iron ore, coal, and grain, alongside containerized goods. Yet, these figures mask deeper challenges.”
The report noted that “Container trade, which grew by just 0.3% in 2023, is expected to rebound by 3.5% in 2024, but long-term growth will depend on how the industry adapts to ongoing disruptions, such as the war in Ukraine and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the supply of container ship capacity grew by 8.2% in 2023.”
“Disruptions at key maritime chokepoints, which temporarily increased demand for ships by lengthening shipping routes, have helped ease the issue of overcapacity. However, if shipping routes return to normal, the imbalance between supply and demand could lead to container vessel overcapacity”, it was observed.The report explained that key shipping routes have faced significant disruptions, causing delays, rerouting, and higher costs.
“Traffic through the Panama and Suez Canals – critical arteries of global trade – dropped by over 50% by mid-2024, compared to their peaks. This decline was driven by climate-induced low water levels in the Panama Canal and the outbreak of conflict in the Red Sea region affecting the Suez Canal. Meanwhile, the tonnage of ships transiting through the Gulf of Aden and the Suez Canal fell by 76% and 70% respectively, compared to late 2023.”Cargo rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope (southern tip of Africa) has surged, with ship capacity arrivals increasing by 89%, said the report. “While this helps maintain the flow of goods, it adds significantly to costs, delays and carbon emissions.
